旋风加速器最新版官网

Welcome to Understanding Uncertainty

Submitted by david on Wed, 19/06/2013 - 9:53am

Welcome to the site that tries to make sense of chance, risk, luck, uncertainty and probability. Mathematics won't tell us what to do, but we think that understanding the numbers can help us deal with our own uncertainty and allow us to look critically at stories in the media.

/sex-numbers

Sex by Numbers, by David Spiegelhalter, is now available for purchase!

Details of reviews, interviews, (and errors) are all featured 雷霆加速器ios永久免费.

Do you have a coincidence story? David Spiegelhalter is collecting them over at http://cambridgecoincidences.org.

Elsewhere on UnderstandingUncertainty:
  • Read more about Welcome to Understanding Uncertainty

banana加速器免费下载-ios加速器

Verena Rieser

When my family plans a trip to the beach in Scotland, there is always a high chance of rain. So I always pack everything: from sunscreen to waterproofs. But would I have reached the same conclusion listening to the weather forecast on the radio or when checking the weather app on my phone? And would my husband have done the same?

  • Read more about Women listen and men look? How to best communicate risk to support decision making
  • Log in to post comments

banana加速器免费下载-ios加速器

Submitted by david on Sun, 07/08/2016 - 11:35am

What words are appropriate when describing the unavoidable unpredictability of real life – what we might casually call ‘chance’?

  • Read morebiubiu加速器下载-游戏加速器免费下载-比较好的免费加速器 ...:2021-6-13 · biubiu加速器app是一款轻便简约不容易的完全免费手游加速器，biubiu加速器app潜心手游加速，不用vip会员就可众开局全球精品手游，biubiu加速器app致力于为 游戏 玩家伔出示永久免费的游戏加快服务项目。 biubiu加速器，一款技术专业加速器，一键处理手游游戏网络卡顿、延迟时间、老掉线、载 …
  • david's blog
  • Log in to post comments

banana加速器免费下载-ios加速器

Submitted by david on Tue, 28/06/2016 - 2:06pm

In a careful study published last week, Socioeconomic position and the risk of brain tumour: a Swedish national population-based cohort study, the authors examined the association between the socio-economic status of men and women in Sweden with diagnosis of brain tumours over 18 years. One of the main findings is shown below.

  • Read more about The risks of Big Data – or why I am not worried about brain tumours.
  • david's blog
  • Log in to post comments

老王加速器最新版下载【2021.4.1已更新V2.2.12】VPN免费 ...:2021-10-3 · “老挝加速器ios”是一款非常实用的游戏加速器软件。法老加速器支持主要游戏的加速，包括荣耀国服，和平精英国际服务，冒险岛M国际服务等。尽管该软件是完全免费的，但连接非常稳定且速度非常快，不会出现卡顿，低延迟和流畅的外部游戏。

Submitted by david on Wed, 08/06/2016 - 3:45pm

I’ve had a lot of publicity over the last few days, but none of it was welcome. It arose from the story below from the Daily Telegraph of June 6 with the headline “网易UU网游加速器——玩出超快感，外服加速72小时免费:网易UU加速器，采用网易自主研发极速引擎,顶级IDC集群，全线高端刀片服务器！为网游用户解决延迟、掉线、卡机等问题，让你游戏更爽快！国服加速永久免费！外服加速72小时免费试用。海外直连专线，外服游戏加速效果业界顶尖！支持加速绝地求生、H1Z1、GTA5、CSGO，众及LOL英雄联盟、DNF地下城 …”

game-thrones-telegraph.jpg

  • Read more about The risks of trying to be funny
  • david's blog
  • 1 comment
  • ios永久免费加速器推荐 to post comments

The importance of what you don’t see

Submitted by david on Sun, 22/05/2016 - 11:29am

Remember all those autism stories over the last few weeks? You don’t? There’s a reason for that.

  • Read more about The importance of what you don’t see
  • 蚂蚁海外加速器永久免费版
  • Log in to post comments

Medicine, poison, poison, poison, ……

Submitted by david on Sat, 09/01/2016 - 11:55am

Yesterday the Chief Medical Officer announced new guidelines for alcohol consumption. The Summary says,

The proposed guidelines and the expert group report that underpins them, have been developed on the basis of the following principles:

  • Read more about Medicine, poison, poison, poison, ……
  • david's blog
  • 6 comments
  • Log in to post comments

banana加速器免费下载-ios加速器

Submitted by david on Sat, 21/11/2015 - 4:09am

On Thursday November 19th the printed version of the Guardian had the headline “老王加速器最新版下载【2021.4.1已更新V2.2.12】VPN免费 ...:2021-10-3 · “老挝加速器ios”是一款非常实用的游戏加速器软件。法老加速器支持主要游戏的加速，包括荣耀国服，和平精英国际服务，冒险岛M国际服务等。尽管该软件是完全免费的，但连接非常稳定且速度非常快，不会出现卡顿，低延迟和流畅的外部游戏。“ [online version here]. But it was not only Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt who gave a misleading statement – the Guardian also made a serious error about statistics.

  • Read more about Jeremy Hunt, the Guardian, and the importance of getting the stats right
  • david's blog
  • 2 comments
  • Log in to post comments

HRT, breast cancer, and the framing of risks

Submitted by david on Sat, 14/11/2015 - 11:22am

The way that risks are 'framed' can make a big impression on their apparent magnitude. The controversy following the recent report by NICE on hormone replacement therapy (HRT) provides a fine example.

  • Read more about HRT, breast cancer, and the framing of risks
  • david's blog
  • 1 comment
  • Log in to post comments

Is it fair that a single bad outcome should label a surgeon as an outlier?

Submitted by david on Sat, 17/10/2015 - 12:16pm

Surgeons are increasingly subject to statistical monitoring, and named results may be made publicly available. But consider a surgeon in a low-risk specialty who has had a successful and blameless career, until a combination of circumstances, possibly beyond their control, contribute to a single patient dying. They then find they are officially labeled as an ‘outlier’ and subject to formal investigation, all because of a purely statistical criterion. Is this fair?

  • Read more about Is it fair that a single bad outcome should label a surgeon as an outlier?
  • david's blog
  • Log in to post comments

banana加速器免费下载-ios加速器

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 7
  • 8
  • 9
  • …
  • next ›
  • last »
Subscribe to Front page feed
旋风加速器16m版本  老王免费加速器下载  pigcha开代理  佛跳墙vpc下载  letsvpn 软件  letsvpn网站  老王佛系加速器最新版  快连vup